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Uncategorized | 141 Posts
October
28

"I'm going to wait until after the election."

If I had a dollar for every time I've heard that since 2009, I would retire early!

Listen to me, yes, sales slow a little in November in Presidential Election years. But they quickly go back up. Anxiety is the only reason for the November slowdown, because history shows us (without a doubt), there is no other reason. Sales do not slump, and prices do not go up or down based on who wins.

It's simply not true!

The below info from Keeping Current Matters, tells you everything you need to help someone if you hear them say they are waiting. Because one of the truest things in real estate is: waiting very rarely has a positive outcome.
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Keeping Current Matters article-

During the month of November, in years when the Presidential election takes place, there's typically a slight slowdown in home sales. As Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, explains:

"Usually, home sales are unchanged compared to a non-election year with the exception being November. In an election year, November is slower than normal."

This is mostly because some people feel uncertain and hesitant about making big decisions during such a pivotal time. However, it's important to know this slowdown is temporary. Historically, home sales bounce back in December and continue to rise the following year.

In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows after nine of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales went up the next year (see graph below):




The graph shows annual home sales going back to 1978. Each year with a Presidential election is noted in blue. The year immediately after each election is green if existing home sales rose that year. The two orange bars represent the only years when home sales decreased after an election.

Home Prices
What about home prices? Do they drop during election years? Not typically. As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist puts it:

"An election year doesn't alter the price trend that is already happening in the market."
Home prices are pretty resilient. They generally rise year-over-year, regardless of elections. The latest data
 from NAR shows after seven of the last eight Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year (see graph below): 



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This one down year, 2009, had absolutely nothing to do with the 2008 election. As you can see, the trend was going down prior to the 2008 election, beginning in 2007. Due to the Subprime Mortgage Crisis and the US entering a recession in 2007 causing the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression. Very unique circumstances.

Rates will come down a little more, we just don't know when. But we do know that more buyers are entering the market, and we still have a tremendous inventory issue. More demand and less supply always drives prices up!

Waiting to see what happens will cost your clients money.

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